Unbelievably Small Strikes, Who Used the Sarin? The Road to War, and civilization in Ontario

View 789 Tuesday, September 10, 2013

“Transparency and the rule of law will be the touchstones of this presidency.”

President Barrack Obama, January 31, 2009

 

Christians to Beirut. Alawites to the grave.

Syrian Freedom Fighters

 

Ninety percent of the American people agree on sending Congress to Syria

The Onion

 

How to win in Syria.

 

Hi Jerry,

Someone has been reading your columns.

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2013/09/05/mr-obama-youve-already-lost-syrian-war-here-how-to-win-big-one/

Cheers,

Doug=

A realist. There used to be a lot of us. The obvious Middle East Policy for the US is to develop our energy resources and let the Arabs learn to live on much lower budgets. And Herman Kahn thought that the 21st Century would be dominated by a US/Russian common interest.  It could still happen.

I have two questions I hope that President Obama will answer tonight:

 

We grant that Sarin was used in a Damascus suburb under rebel control. Can you show the evidence that this was ordered by Bashar as-Assad"?

 

Who does the United States want to be the winner of the Syrian Civil War?

 

The noon news closed with more confusion about the Syrian situation. Perhaps the President will accept Secretary Kerry’s ultimatum as the condition for not making an incredibly minor – oops, unbelievably small — strike in Syria. Perhaps Russia will collect all Syrian weapons of mass destruction.

Meanwhile I have yet to see any rational reason for Bashar al-Assad to have employed Sarin in a Damascus suburb. The casual statement by war enthusiasts that Assad was desperate and used them in the civil war because he was afraid of losing is nonsense: he isn’t losing and that suburb isn’t a vital asset one way or another – and indeed contains a number of Loyalists as well as rebels. Using Sarin there has no upside, and the downside of using Sarin anywhere is enormous. Had the Sarin knocked out a major rebel headquarters or troop concentration one might see the temptation for the regime to use it: but all it did was kill some unarmed civilians and children. Why would anyone be made enough to choose that target to bet his life on?

Meanwhile “Human Rights Groups” flood the Internet with stories about how the evidence is growing to show that Assad used war gasses == but when I read the actual story rather than the headline, I see growing evidence that Sarin was used, but none whatever on who used it. I hear rumors of satellite photographs of missile launches from Assad controlled territory landing in the relevant target areas, but it’s all hearsay – no one seems to have seen the photographs, only to have been told they exist. We are reminded of the aria on calumny in Mozart’s Barber of Seville.

I don’t say that Bashar al-Assad is a good guy who would never use war gasses on civilians; I don’t know his inner feelings and motivations. I do say he is not a fool, and using Sarin on a suburb of your own capital – where all the foreign news people will be concentrated and known to the Free Syria press agents – when there is no conceivable military purpose is the act of a fool. The only explanation other than that it was an act of military desperation – which it could not have been – has been by some neocon warriors who say it was a sheer act of defiance. Since Assad denies he ordered any use of Sarin, it’s a peculiar act of defiance. I defy you, oops, no, really, I didn’t do it—

We continue on the road to war. Now the President needs to justify keeping on a bumbling Secretary of State who make us all miss Hillary Clinton. And to convince the Congress to give him permission to make an unbelievably small air strike against Syria. Only the Russian say that we must not use force. There’s no one out there that we can trust, no side that we want to win the Syrian Civil War –

One course of action almost makes sense: The United States tells Syria to change dictators. Get rid of Assad or we will. What we did n Afghanistan. The difference is that we say in advance that Assad must Go, but once that has been accomplished we get out (if we ever got in there in the first place). Of course this asserts a US hegemony that will require a much larger military than we have at present – at least a 450 ship navy and even that is probably not enough – since we in effect are saying that we have become the Enforcer of World Order. At some point that will be opposed, either directly or through proxies, by China and Russia, both of whom have oppressed minorities willing to stage some kind of revolt. There are nations with unhappy minorities who will not easily assume the role of banana republics in the days of United Fruit. If we are going to bully the world into obeying it’s own ideals, we will need troops to do it. Even that won’t do it all – if we are going to adopt the role of competent empire, we will also need to learn how to recruit puppet kings and local auxiliary forces, build a Foreign Legion, levy tribute on our allies (Athens moved the Treasury of the Delian League to Athens) and – well, converting from Republic to competent Empire is a serious step.

But tonight we will find out what President Obama believes must be done.

Live Free or die.

‘Cunningham is charged with possession of a weapon for a dangerous purpose and unauthorized possession of a weapon. He is to appear in court Sept. 26.’

<http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/sunnews/canada/archives/2013/09/20130906-110915.html>

—

Roland Dobbins

PETERBOROUGH, ON – A 24-year-old man faces two charges after he used bear spray to fend off a man who was trying to mug him in the street Thursday, police say.

William Charles Cunningham was walking along Bethune St. at about 4:30 p.m. when another man allegedly tried to grab him and demanded cash.

Cunningham defended himself by spraying the robber in the face, police said.

Officers who responded to his call for help discovered he was carrying both the bear spray and a large folding knife, police said.

Cunningham is charged with possession of a weapon for a dangerous purpose and unauthorized possession of a weapon. He is to appear in court Sept. 26.

Jacob Scott Collins, 26, is charged with robbery and breach of probation. He was scheduled to appear in court Friday.

This got my attention because of the dateline Peterborough and my failing eyesight: I saw it as Peterborough New Hampshire. New Hampshire has the state motto “Live free or die,” which is no bad first approximation as a first instruction on how to stay a free society. Then I saw that it WAS Peterborough, ON, so this is an example of where we are going rather than where we are. Perhaps. We will see.

Possession of a weapon for a dangerous purpose, and unauthorized possession of a weapon. So it goes.

The last time I had any contact with Ontario police was when I was GOH ad a convention and the Regional Police raided the convention because one of the convention entertainments was a singing group that featured as part of their performance a stuffed pillow called ‘the Penisaurus’, which looked exactly like you think it does. Apparently although the event in the hotel ballroom was supposed to be for convention member only, some mundanes staying in the hotel begged their way past the door dragon for a look at the fan event, were horrified, and ran out to call the Regional Police.  I can see the scene at HQ; “Hey Sarge, they say there’s a bunch of science fiction people having a lewd costume party out at a hotel, how many want to volunteer for the raid?”  “Me, Me. Me.”  In any event about 20 cops showed up and raided the place.  Eventually the Penisaurus was banished, two girls were told to put on sweaters, and the police went away.  I have remembered Ontario ever since. Now I have something else to remember them by.

Be careful in New Orleans

WND EXCLUSIVE

Police not interested in brutal beating on tape

Officer tells victims ‘zero’ chance of finding attackers

A couple’s early-morning walk in the world famous French Quarter of New Orleans turned into a nightmare when they were beaten savagely by three black attackers in a horrifying scene that was caught on camera.

Then it got worse: The responding police officer decided it wasn’t worth filing a report.

According to the local CBS affiliate, the three perpetrators surrounded, verbally abused and then attacked the two victims as they walked through the French Quarter around 6 a.m. on Saturday.

The woman was punched in the mouth, while the man was tackled and had his face stomped as he lay helpless on the ground. The male victim suffered a concussion and a severely broken jaw that required surgery.

The video, despite breaks, caught most of the action leading up to the violence. It shows the two victims, both white, crossing the street as they are stalked by three young, African-American males who then surround and strike them.

After a break in the footage, the two victims are shown, clearly hurt. The surveillance camera also picked up their friend, who flagged down the obstinate officer for help and talked with him for about six minutes.

The officer is never seen getting out of his vehicle in the footage, but police officials stated to local media that he got out of his car sometime during his response.

Despite the evidence shown in the video and the report of the victims’ friend to the responding officer, the policeman ruled the call “unfounded” and didn’t write a report of the incident.

The officer, who was about to go off his shift at 7 a.m., even told the friend who detailed the crime to him that there was “zero” chance of the assailants being caught.

http://www.wnd.com/2013/08/police-not-interested-in-brutal-beating-on-tape/

 

I don’t know this web site, but it sounds like New Orleans.

 

A new instance of the Iron Law

 

“New Twist in Feud with Microlender.”

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323864604579065091325080238.html

 

Bangladesh To Pursue Legal Action Against Grameen’s Founder Yunus

Move Apparently Escalates a Long-Running Political Feud

 

By
• SYED ZAIN AL-MAHMOOD

DHAKA, Bangladesh—Bangladesh’s government on Monday instructed authorities to pursue legal action against the Nobel Prize-winning founder of Grameen Bank for alleged tax evasion, escalating a long-running apparent political feud.

The decision to move against Muhammad Yunus, former managing director of Grameen, a microlending pioneer credited with helping many rural Bangladeshis escape poverty, was taken at a cabinet meeting headed by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, according to cabinet secretary Musharraf Hossain Bhuiyan.

 

Which is to say that the government sees an enterprise it doesn’t pay for and doesn’t own, but which it doesn’t control, and it’s popular.  It’s beak wetting time.

WHO USED SARIN?

 

"It wasn’t the government of Bashar al-Assad that used sarin gas or any other gas in Ghouta. We are sure about this because we overheard a conversation between rebels. It pains me to say it because I’ve been a fierce supporter of the Free Syrian Army in its rightful fight for democracy since 2012."

<http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/504735/20130909/syria-chemical-attack-assad-rebels-blame-hostage.htm>

—

Roland Dobbins

I have no other information on this but it makes more sense than that Assad decided to pluck Obama’s beard and blow it in his face without any gain from doing it.

 

However, we also have this from a well informed observer:

Briar Patch?

Jerry,

I predict we will soon see an outburst of Strange New Respect for Constitutional separation of powers and Congressional prerogatives on the part of the President. Consider that his usual tendency in these things is to delay and do nothing, from the (rumored) repeated postponements of the bin Laden raid, to the apparent refusal to allow any response to the Benghazi attack, to the prolonged inaction on Iranian nukes. His sudden call for Congressional approval before attacking Syria makes sense only as a way for him to acquire someone else to blame before he ignores all the advisers telling him that having drawn a red line he must now act. Go ahead, Congress – force him to do nothing – throw him in that briar patch!

It still looks to me most likely that the source of the nerve gas was the Syrian artillery that was bombarding the neighborhood at the time.

The radical jihadists among the rebels do seem entirely morally capable of doing such an attack as a false-flag operation, but their physical capability to pull it off undetected is less clear. That said, the chain of command involved seems very unclear – one widely reported communications intercept has a senior Syrian in the nominal chain of command calling the local artillery unit and yelling at them "what are you doing?!" once he heard nerve gas was used. Which could fit with any number of scenarios, of course.

Regardless, the Syrian motive for such an attack seems clear to me – they’re severely short of infantry capable of effectively clearing a defended urban neighborhood. If they can get away with using nerve gas without major repercussions – the jury’s still out – this problem is solved, between the actual gas capability and the morale effects on other would-be holdout neighborhoods.

Meanwhile, the only halfway plausible argument I’ve heard for our intervening in Syria is the effect on Iran’s leadership and their push for nuclear weapons – either intimidating or emboldening them, depending. It occurs to me to modestly propose that we eliminate the middleman and go to the root of the problem: Use this crisis to build up forces in the region, then pivot and comprehensively destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities by surprise.

That, alas, would require a CinC with imagination, nerve, and resolve.

Our complete lack in that department is the overwhelming practical argument for doing nothing, as both Congress and country seem to be rapidly concluding.

Porkypine

I do not see why a non-decisive war gas attack would ever be attractive to the Assad regime; I suppose it could be a rogue effort within the Alawite command structure, but I don’t find that likely either he regime knows that using Sarin is a desperation move and there is no evidence that Assad doesn’t think he can win this civil war – provided that the Great Powers don’t intervene against him.  Other than nukes, using Sarin is the move most likely to get the west to attack him. I think it more likely that this is a false flag operation against Assad than a disastrous mistake by the Alawites.

If we were to intervene, on whose side should we intervene? We can break things and kill people. Whom should we kill?