Daily Archives: Jul 11, 2015

Chaos Manor View, Saturday, July 11, 2015

“Thus the average person in the world of 1800 was no better off than the average person of 100,000 BC. Indeed in 1800 the bulk of the world’s population was poorer than their remote ancestors. The lucky denizens of wealthy societies such as eighteenth century England or the Netherlands managed a material lifestyle equivalent to that of the Stone Age. But the vast swath of humanity in East and South Asia, particularly in China and Japan, eked out a living under conditions probably significantly poorer than those of cavemen.”

A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World

http://www.amazon.com/Farewell-Alms-Economic-History-Princeton/dp/0691141282

“Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man. Advances which permit this norm to be exceeded—here and there, now and then—are the work of an extremely small minority, frequently despised, often condemned, and almost always opposed by all right-thinking people. Whenever this tiny minority is kept from creating, or (as sometimes happens) is driven out of a society, the people then slip back into abject poverty.

“This is known as ‘bad luck’.”

– Robert A. Heinlein

The 4 O’clock Time Warner net slowdown is in effect.

We have more on climate modeling. Apparently we spent billions modeling the wrong thing. We modeled Earth and validated the models by how well predictions from the newest models fit with those from the existing ones, since none of them were worth much in predicting actual weather or climate. They should have been working to model solar output: apparently we are due for another minimum solar output period similar to the Maunder Minimum that produced the Little Ice Age.

Possibly not; but it seems to be a matter of concern for some smart people while being ignored by the Warming Believers.

When we wrote Fallen Angels http://www.amazon.com/Fallen-Angels-Larry-Niven/dp/0743471814 it was meant as a satirical satire and a tribute to Science Fiction Fandom.  We didn’t know we were predicting.

Solar activity predicted to fall 60% in 2030s, to ‘mini ice age’ levels: Sun driven by double dynamo

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/07/150709092955.htm
Stephanie Osborn

“The Interstellar Woman of Mystery”
http://www.Stephanie-Osborn.com

Is a mini ICE AGE on the way? Scientists warn the sun will ‘go to sleep’ in 2030 and could cause temperatures to plummet

• New study claims to have cracked predicting solar cycles
• Says that between 2030 and 2040 solar cycles will cancel each other out
• Could lead to ‘Maunder minimum’ effect that saw River Thames freeze over

The Earth could be headed for a ‘mini ice age’ researchers have warned.

A new study claims to have cracked predicting solar cycles – and says that between 2020 and 2030 solar cycles will cancel each other out.

This, they say, will lead to a phenomenon known as the ‘Maunder minimum’ – which has previously been known as a mini ice age when it hit between 1646 and 1715, even causing London’s River Thames to freeze over.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3156594/Is-mini-ICE-AGE-way-Scientists-warn-sun-sleep-2020-cause-temperatures-plummet.html

The Daily Mail is not what I call a totally reliable source. Science Daily is closer, but still likes drama. They cite much more reliable sources; it seems to be serious. I am not surprised that the Believers have ignored this. Their jobs are at stake. We can rejoice that it gets attention, although whether it will make any True Believers reconsider is another matter.

There is also a publication by the Royal Astronomical Society:

Irregular heartbeat of the Sun driven by double dynamo

A new model of the Sun’s solar cycle is producing unprecedentedly accurate predictions of irregularities within the Sun’s 11-year heartbeat. The model draws on dynamo effects in two layers of the Sun, one close to the surface and one deep within its convection zone. Predictions from the model suggest that solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s to conditions last seen during the ‘mini ice age’ that began in 1645. Results will be presented today by Prof Valentina Zharkova at the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno.

It is 172 years since a scientist first spotted that the Sun’s activity varies over a cycle lasting around 10 to 12 years. But every cycle is a little different and none of the models of causes to date have fully explained fluctuations. Many solar physicists have put the cause of the solar cycle down to a dynamo caused by convecting fluid deep within the Sun. Now, Zharkova and her colleagues have found that adding a second dynamo, close to the surface, completes the picture with surprising accuracy.

http://www.ras.org.uk/news-and-press/2680-irregular-heartbeat-of-the-sun-driven-by-double-dynamo

It is worth your attention.  Apparently there has been serious modeling effort.

…If I had to say, I think they may need one more dynamo layer in there, to account for the slight irregularities in when the extended minima show up. I think that’d take ’em past 97% matching observations.

And that this offset between the dynamos has already begun to a limited extent, because of the decreasing activity for the last couple of cycles.

(But again, this is just what I’ve been saying at conventions all over the southeast — solar astronomers are not in agreement about the AGW science. Note that the Daily Mail is blatant about it, but that the article in Science Daily tapdances around it and references not only the Maunder Minimum but the Little Ice Age. Quote: “Predictions from the model suggest that solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s to conditions last seen during the ‘mini ice age’ that began in 1645.” So direct, and yet not direct.)

Stephanie Osborn

“The Interstellar Woman of Mystery”

Jerry,

Incidentally Stephanie and I are working through

http://www.amazon.com/Atmospheric-Electrodynamics-Physics-Chemistry-Space/dp/3642698158/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1436631696&sr=8-2&keywords=atmospheric+electrodynamics

Apparently all atmospheric electrodynamics is fundamentally driven by charging due to the combination of ionizing radiation from radioactive decay in the soil, and cosmic radiation.  (That should be fundamental, but I don’t recall seeing it before.) That would suggest, though I haven’t seen any studies, increased thunderstorm activity during solar minimum because of the increased cosmic ray flux under the reduced solar wind conditions at solar minimum. It certainly ties to the Swedish research suggesting increased cloud cover under solar minimum increased cosmic ray flux.

J

Fortunately it has the attention of some of my friends who are more capable of assimilating the evidence than I am. You will understand that a Little Ice Age would be extremely expensive, and carbon taxes would be no help at all.

I have always wondered if the models can possibly take account of the radiation to interstellar space on cloud free nights, and the consequent warming effects of night time clouds; I have not seen the modelers discuss it, but of course it is not my area of expertise.  Still, experiments with a globe thermometer on cloudy and cloud free nights can be educational.

Holly Lisle is an old and dear friend.

Hi, Jerry,

This is my assessment of the state of being human and facing the hard stuff in life, posted right before I go offline for the next two weeks. I hope you’ll find this heartening.

http://hollylisle.com/life-pain-fear-and-the-whole-wide-world-breathe-in-breathe-out/

I appreciate your kindness and good thoughts in my direction, and wanted to let you know that I’m in good shape physically and mentally for what is to come.

And I’ll let you know what the results of this mess are when I have them.

Hugs,

Holly

Ad Astra

Hello Jerry,

Got this from my son.

If you haven’t received it from a couple hundred of your other readers already I suspect that you will appreciate it:

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/plutos-discoverers-ashes-will-be-the-first-human-remains-to-leave-the-solar-system-%e2%80%94-glued-to-the-side-of-a-space-probe/ar-AAcLEUk?ocid=iehp

Bob Ludwick

I knew Clyde Tombaugh. Had dinner with him and Harry Stine and met him several times when I was on the board of the Lowell observatory.

More on this another time, but note the date on this report, and the lack of mention of it in popular press.  We can model the sun’s variability much better that we model the annual average temperature of the Earth, but no one pays attention.

Solar Variability and Terrestrial Climate

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/08jan_sunclimate/

Jan. 8, 2013:  In the galactic scheme of things, the Sun is a remarkably constant star.  While some stars exhibit dramatic pulsations, wildly yo-yoing in size and brightness, and sometimes even exploding, the luminosity of our own sun varies a measly 0.1% over the course of the 11-year solar cycle. 

There is, however, a dawning realization among researchers that even these apparently tiny variations can have a significant effect on terrestrial climate. A new report issued by the National Research Council (NRC), “The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth’s Climate,” lays out some of the surprisingly complex ways that solar activity can make itself felt on our planet.

<snip>

One of the participants, Greg Kopp of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the University of Colorado, pointed out that while the variations in luminosity over the 11-year solar cycle amount to only a tenth of a percent of the sun’s total output, such a small fraction is still important.  “Even typical short term variations of 0.1% in incident irradiance exceed all other energy sources (such as natural radioactivity in Earth’s core) combined,” he says.

<snip>

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