Ramblings on a Sunday; Curiosity on Mars

View 736 Sunday, August 05, 2012

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Something today reminded me:

The Servant When He Reigneth

"For three things the earth is disquieted, and for four which it cannot bear. For a servant when he reigneth, and a fool when he is filled with meat; for an odious woman when she is married, and an handmaid that is heir to her mistress." — PROV. XXX. 21-22-23.

Three things make earth unquiet
And four she cannot brook
The godly Agur counted them
And put them in a book —
Those Four Tremendous Curses
With which mankind is cursed;
But a Servant when He Reigneth
Old Agur entered first.
An Handmaid that is Mistress
We need not call upon.
A Fool when he is full of Meat
Will fall asleep anon.
An Odious Woman Married
May bear a babe and mend;
But a Servant when He Reigneth
Is Confusion to the end.

His feet are swift to tumult,
His hands are slow to toil,
His ears are deaf to reason,
His lips are loud in broil.
He knows no use for power
Except to show his might.
He gives no heed to judgment
Unless it prove him right.

Because he served a master
Before his Kingship came,
And hid in all disaster
Behind his master’s name,
So, when his Folly opens
The unnecessary hells,
A Servant when He Reigneth
Throws the blame on some one else.

His vows are lightly spoken,
His faith is hard to bind,
His trust is easy broken,
He fears his fellow-kind.
The nearest mob will move him
To break the pledge he gave —
Oh, a Servant when he Reigneth
Is more than ever slave!

Rudyard Kipling

Of course no one says such things now. Perhaps we have evidence that they are not true as we once thought? Or perhaps they used to be true but are no longer?

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I hold no real brief for the Mamalukes – the Military officers who formerly ruled Egypt – but I am not at all certain that rule by those who have the means to sieze and hold the public square in Cairo is preferable, and I am fairly certain that the rule of the Muslim Brotherhood is not a step towards progress. Mr. Romney has said that a major difference between Palestinians and Israelis is cultural. Martin Peretz, former owner of New Republic, said recently “Mitt Romney was said to have made an enormous faux pas when he said that,” but “I have no great anticipations in the Morsi government because it seems to me the Muslim Brotherhood’s program in its essentials will not alter the social rules of Arab societies. That is, if you expect that in two years someone will be able to say that what Romney said is not true, you will be bitterly disappointed.”

Today I heard a radio bulletin that there have been heavy casualties in the border area where Gaza, Israel, and Egypt come together. This can hardly be a surprise.

The US abandoned Miubarek, a long time ally and keeper of the peace. I expect most of my readers will be too young to remember the seemingly endless wars of 1948, 1956, 1967, 1969, 1973, as well as hundreds of incidents. Then in 1979 Egypt recognized Israel and made peace. It was an uneasy peace, and committed the US to pay heavy tribute to help preserve it, but it was a form of peace. The Muslim Brotherhood apparently does not recognize the right of Israel to exist.

Democracy in Egypt cannot easily be defined. It is not clear what will come in Tunisia. It is less clear what will be the future of Libya. Syria is in turmoil but we don’t know much about the rebel factions.

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A source has told me that Harry Reid is a pederast. Of course sources have told me that Newt Gingrich is an alien, that President Obama was not born in the United States, that a secret unit at Wright Patterson Air Force Base has a secret vault containing wreckage and bodies from crashed alien spacecraft – apparently multiples!. Harry Reid says that sources have told him that Mitt Romney has not paid his taxed in ten years. Sources have told me that Roosevelt deliberately provoked the Japanese into attacking the United States but Roosevelt did not expect it to be at Pearl Harbor. Sources close to Admiral Kimmel have told me that Roosevelt knew precisely when the attack on Pearl Harbor was coming, but did not warn Kimmel. Sources have told me that – but surely the point is made. There is probably no story so improbable that someone will not tell it to someone else as an anonymous source. Of course some improbable stories are true, even if they surface in the silly season during an election campaign.

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Facebook stock continued to fall. When it first came out I guessed that the stock would fall until its Price to Earnings ratio fell below the P/E for Apple and Google. P/E is not an exact estimate – particularly since estimating future earnings for any of those companies is not all that accurate a process and involves a good bit of guesswork – but it is an estimate of what “the market” thinks of the growth potential of the company. A very high P/E says that the company has very high growth expectations. The objective evidence for the growth potential of Facebook being that much higher than Apple has always been lacking. I leave conclusions as an exercise for the reader.

Looking at fundamentals, Google clearly had a far more modest valuation than Facebook’s. For the two reported financial quarters that ended June 30, 2004, Google earned $143 million on sales of $1.35 billion. Doubling those numbers for an annualized figure, you get $286 million net income on $2.7 billion in revenue. That would have given Google a price-earnings ratio of 80.5, and a price-to-sales ratio of 8.5.

Those are not lean numbers in and of themselves, but when you consider how fast Google was growing its top line, they were not ludicrously in the stratosphere. Revenue surged 234% in 2003 from 2002, and was still jumping 162% and 125% in the first and second quarters of 2004, respectively. Those are the kinds of growth rates that make an 80 P/E palatable.

Now take a look at Facebook’s last two quarterly income statements. For the final quarter of 2011 and the first one of 2012, Mark Zuckerberg and his crew earned net income of $507 million on revenue of $2.19 billion. Annualized, you get $1.14 billion profit on $4.38 billion in sales. That’s a profit margin of 26%, blowing away Google’s of less than 10% for the first six months of 2004 when it was still private.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/johndobosz/2012/05/17/facebook-is-flat-out-expensive-compared-to-google-at-ipo/

I note that there seem to be few recent analyses of Facebook P/E.

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Curiosity has landed on Mars. It appears to have been a nominal mission. Of course it had to be – that is, there’s no such thing as a small failure in an operation like this. It all has to go right or nothing does. Cal Tech/JPL/NASA have brought it off and deserve the praise they will now get. And that’s really all we are going to know until the dust covers come off the cameras, and all the cameras – I believe there are seventeen of them – are in operation. We have every reason to expect all that to work properly. The existence of the blurred black and whites taken through the dust covers shows that the relay linkages are all working, the Deep Space Network is working, the power sources on both Curiosity and the orbiter are in order, and all the pieces are talking to each other.

The mission cost several billion dollars.The photographs and other data will be streaming in for days, weeks, months, probably years. It was worth it. We will learn a lot from that.

Having said that, I will add that I would not make Mars exploration the next high priority space event. I still believe that the next step in space exploration ought to be a permanent Lunar Base. We have to learn to live in space and exploit space resources, and the Moon is the logical next step. It has resources, nowhere near those of Mars, but extensive, and the Moon is comparatively easy to get to. A Moon base can be supported from Earth when we inevitably discover that we forgot to bring along something that we need for life. But that’s another discussion for another time. For now it’s enough to congratulate the Curiosity team, and shout loud huzzahs.

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The Hershey Puzzle continues; possible lawsuit?

View 735 Friday, August 03, 2012

It’s time for my walk, but I have this:

Government seizure of children

Jerry:

Perhaps I can add to your recently acquired knowledge of Dr. Michael Farris by pointing you to some resources. Briefly, Dr. Farris is one of God’s gifts to American parents in this century.

You frequently comment on the disaster of government schooling, as well you should, for it is leading us into the new dark age you often mention. In response to that disaster, Michael Farris was a pioneer in the home schooling movement.

Dr. Farris was a founder and is now chairman and general counsel of the Home School Legal Defense Association. He is also founding president and now chancellor of Patrick Henry College in Virginia. In his spare time, between writing more than a dozen books on history, constitutional law, and education, he wrote 3 novels.

"Education Week" named Dr. Farris one of the "Top 100 Faces in Education of the 20th Century." The Heritage Foundation awarded him its Salvatori Award for American Citizenship.

As for the Home School Legal Defense Association, anyone doing home schooling should be a member of HSLDA for the protection of their children and their rights as parents. HSLDA stands in the doorway between you and the cops and social workers who come to seize your children and grandchildren.

You can learn more about HSLDA at

http://www.hslda.org/

Dr. Farris’s work as an attorney with HSLDA is described at http://www.hslda.org/about/staff/attorneys/Farris.asp

His position at Patrick Henry College is described at http://www.phc.edu/chancellor_main.php

He introduces a 25-part course on America’s constitution at http://www.constitutionreclaimed.com/

As for the incident in State College that caught your attention, you should not be surprised. It is not surprising that the child was taken by the government. Neither is it surprising that the "mainstream media" ignored the incident. The government works hard every day to seize both physical and mental control of America’s children. The battle has escalated as the United Nations seeks even greater control. For an introduction to that issue, see http://www.parentalrights.org/

Best regards,

–Harry M.

Which is good credential presentation but still doesn’t give me the details of what really happened in the State College, Pennsylvania hospital incident, and I am still puzzled as to why a flock of hungry lawyers have not descended on the town: a mother separated from her child by force, forced to sleep in a parking lot and called in at intervals to breast feed her newborn: it is a story most journalists would kill for, and when I thought I was going to be a lawyer I would have prayed for the opportunity to plead such a case. Against a Penn State institution! At this time!

But I Google in vain. And that is puzzling. We have a clear case of kidnapping, abuse of authority, incompetence, malfeasance – perhaps the Attorney General of the United States is suppressing the investigation?

For those who don’t know what this is about, https://www.jerrypournelle.com/chaosmanor/?p=8831. The story is horrifying. And there seems to be no national reaction to it. And I remain puzzled.

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It is time for my morning walk. More on this later. I do not doubt the arrogant incompetence of bureaucrats in some institutions. Fortunately my medical experiences have been with Kaiser and I cannot remember one made unpleasant by the people there (there is nothing pleasant about having brain cancer, but that’s not Kaiser’s fault). But I cannot fathom why a story of this magnitude is ignored by all the free lance reporters in the area. Is there some judicial gag order?

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NASA SELECTS SPACEX TO RETURN AMERICANS TO SPACE

Notice the budget, 440 million. NASA eats that much money in meetings every year. I’m sure they are still expending millions on getting the rocket to nowhere going. Never the less, Space X got the contract. Go DD Harriman.

Phil

Begin forwarded message:

From: "SpaceX" <emily@spacex.com>

Subject: NASA SELECTS SPACEX TO RETURN AMERICANS TO SPACE

Date: August 3, 2012 10:40:18 AM PDT

To: <ptharp@vreelin.com>

<https://staticapp.icpsc.com/icp/loadimage.php/mogile/746865/7536220a9d41b0a837a27eb049f22d36/image/png>

NASA SELECTS SPACEX TO RETURN AMERICANS TO SPACE

(Hawthorne, CA) – Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) today won a $440 million contract with NASA to develop the successor to the Space Shuttle and transport American astronauts into space.

“This is a decisive milestone in human spaceflight and sets an exciting course for the next phase of American space exploration,” said SpaceX CEO and Chief Designer Elon Musk. “SpaceX, along with our partners at NASA, will continue to push the boundaries of space technology to develop the safest, most advanced crew vehicle ever flown.”

SpaceX expects to undertake its first manned flight by 2015 – a timetable that capitalizes on the proven success of the company’s Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon spacecraft combination. While Dragon is initially being used to transport cargo to the International Space Station, both Dragon and Falcon 9 were designed from the beginning to carry crew.

Under the Commercial Crew Integrated Capability (CCiCap) initiative’s base period, SpaceX will make the final modifications necessary to prepare Dragon to safely transport astronauts into space. These include:

******Seats for seven astronauts.

******The most technically advanced launch escape system ever developed, with powered abort possibilities from launch pad to orbit. SpaceX will demonstrate that Dragon will be able to escape a launch-pad emergency by firing integrated SuperDraco engines to carry the spacecraft safely to the ocean. SpaceX will also conduct an in-flight abort test that allows Dragon to escape at the moment of maximum aerodynamic drag, again by firing the SuperDraco thrusters to carry the spacecraft a safe distance from the rocket.

******A breakthrough propulsive landing system for gentle ground touchdowns on legs.

******Refinements and rigorous testing of essential aspects of Dragon’s design, including life-support systems and an advanced cockpit design complete with modern human interfaces.

SpaceX will perform stringent safety and mission-assurance analyses to demonstrate that all these systems meet NASA requirements.

With a minimal number of stage separations, all-liquid rocket engines that can be throttled and turned off in an emergency, engine-out capability during ascent, and powered abort capability all the way to orbit, the Falcon 9-Dragon combination will be the safest spacecraft ever developed.

About SpaceX

SpaceX designs, manufactures and launches the world’s most advanced rockets and spacecraft. With a diverse manifest of more than 40 launches to resupply the space station and deliver commercial and government satellites to orbit, SpaceX is the world’s fastest growing launch services provider. In 2012, SpaceX made history when its Dragon spacecraft became the first commercial vehicle to successfully attach to the International Space Station—a feat previously achieved by only four governments. With the retirement of the Space Shuttle, the SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon spacecraft are carrying cargo, and one day will carry astronauts, to and from the space station for NASA. Founded in 2002 by Elon Musk, SpaceX is a private company owned by management and employees, with minority investments from Founders Fund, Draper Fisher Jurvetson, and Valor Equity Partners. The company has more than 1,800 employees in California, Texas, Florida and Washington, DC. For more information, visit www.spacex.com.

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PHOTOGRAPHY: http://spacexlaunch.zenfolio.com/p70000514 <http://click.icptrack.com/icp/relay.php?r=12851859&msgid=211577&act=2CFY&c=746865&destination=https%3A%2F%2Fmail.spacex.com%2Fowa%2Fredir.aspx%3FC%3Dc75b9afceae14333a6086d27e0006bbc%26URL%3Dhttp%253a%252f%252fspacexlaunch.zenfolio.com%252fp70000514>

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The Man Who Sold The Moon? $440 million? We live in interesting times.

 

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Docket Listing for Civil Rights Suit in PA Baby Case

Jerry –

This might be of some interest:

http://dockets.justia.com/docket/pennsylvania/pamdce/1:2012cv00442/88588/

It lists details about a suit filed in Pennsylvania Middle District Court, Harrisburg – Plaintiffs Scott and Jodi Ferris, Defendants Milton S. Hershey Medical Center, Caitlin J. Mallis, M.D., Ian M. Paul, M.D., John Doe, M.D., Janet Doe, R.N., John Roe, Jane Roe, Janet Roe, Jack Roe, Officer Rian Bell, Officer Jake Roe, Angelica Lopez-Heagy , Dauphin County Social Services for Children and Youth and Jane Doe, R.N.

Filed March 9 of this year.

Don’t know whether justia.com is a reliable source, but it does offer what might be an indication other than Michael Farris’ request for donations that Scott and Jodi ?Ferris exist and are involved in a dust-up with Milton S. Hershey Medical Center et al.

David Smith

Interesting. Indeed. So one wonders, why is there not more attention to this? Why is Chick Fil A or however you spell it of more interest than what is described as a plain case of assault, abuse of authority, and kidnapping? If the accounts we have of the incident are accurate, this is a horror story. Perhaps the trial, if it ever happens, will bring out more information. Or perhaps the suit will be bought off for money in exchange for silence.

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One reason I don’t Tweet: http://www.foxnews.com/tech/2012/08/02/new-facebook-tool-may-turn-friends-into-enemies-for-democratic-cause/ 

I suppose I will have to join the 21st Century and create some kind of Facebook page to which I can upload pictures once in a while, but I have to say I don’t really know anyone whose tweets I would care to follow. I may be mistaken on that, but when I want short observations from people I respect I go look at Glenn Reynolds Instapundit.  I so no reason to follow him on Tweet, although I probably would have liked to know he was going to be at a party I attended in Chattanooga last month. I had a pleasant conversation with Glenn and his wife, but had I known he would be there I would have arranged to stay longer. In any event, I am contemplating a Facebook page (I understand there may be one with my name on it put up by friends, but I have never seen it since I don’t have a Facebook account). I don’t think I contemplate Tweeting.

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The Chick Fil A story continues. http://www.foxnews.com/us/2012/08/03/viral-video-man-picking-on-chick-fil-worker-gets-him-fired/ shows the viral video of the onetime college professor and CFO of a medical manufacturing company who decided to drive in to a Chick  Fil A and get a free water, and while he was at it, harangue a very cool young lady employee working at the drive in food service window. He got his free water and did not cause Rachel to lose her cool. The result will probably be a promotion for Rachel and has apparently resulted in his dismissal as CFO. Sic transit gloria mundi.

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Ability, capability, legitimacy, amusements.

Mail 735 Thursday, August 02, 2012

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Still to ponder…

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/america-goes-jousting/

The comments are even more interesting.

My take is that the US has slowly lost the ability (mind you, not the capability) to conduct light infantry operations. The USMC is taking steps back to that, but it won’t go far enough. The first step would be (should be, HAS to be) ditching body armor. Sending warriors into 4th generation combat weighed down heavier than Lind’s referenced jousters is just plain foolish. Movement, individual firepower, and local command of the situation is vital to winning in a 4th generation scenario. Soldiers have to mingle with the population and be respected by them. The second step is to stop being squeamish about fighting. As Forrest said, "War means fighting, and fighting means killing." The observation goes both ways, but Patton puts additional perspective, "Make the other poor bastard die…." Sadly, I don’t see either of these two steps being accepted by the current political or social climate – even worse, I don’t foresee the US moving close to this in several generations (caveat – unless we engage in another civil war at home). We want war clean, sanitary, and without consequences. Won’t happen. Never has. Never will. Once control is achieved, then the mailed fist can be covered with the velvet glove – sympathy, concern, assistance, and respect can be made to win the day (and it IS day to day! That means a long time) in 4th generation warfare.

I use my own experiences as example. See attached.

s/f

Couv

Cheap energy = prosperity!

Drill here, DRILL NOW!

David Couvillon

Colonel, U.S. Marine Corps Reserve, Retired.; Former Governor of Wasit Province, Iraq; Righter of Wrongs; Wrong most of the time; Distinguished Expert, TV remote control; Chef de Hot Dog Excellance; Avoider of Yard Work

 

http://www.newsday.com/columnists/other-columnists/this-marine-knows-when-to-put-his-guard-down-1.488969

.

Intangibles vital to change in Iraq
If there is still a lot of danger in Iraq for American troops, there is also an incredible opportunity to help a long-oppressed people get back on their feet and create a working democracy.

We can think of no better example for the people of Iraq than the men and women of the United States, in uniform and in civilian aid services. Our people are there not only to provide security and restoration of essential services. They are there to provide a role model for citizens of a free country.

One unit that is providing aid, tangible and inspirational, to the people of Iraq is the 3rd Battalion of the 23rd Marines, commanded by Lt. Col. David Couvillon and including many Baton Rouge-area reservists.

Couvillon is military provincial governor of Wasit Province, a farming region along the Tigris River south of Baghdad.

Through all sorts of difficulties for the daily life of Iraqis — power blackouts, shortages of essential items, long-term neglect of roads or other essential structures — the Marines toil on. They sleep in a hot hangar at an airfield, and during the hotter days they work on security and trying to restore civic order.

Unemployment and disorganization still are hallmarks of many towns and cities in Iraq.

Couvillon notes that many of the occupation army’s tasks cannot be done overnight, but that expectations among ordinary Iraqis are very high. "It’s hard for people here to see it," he said in a telephone interview. "With America and Great Britain so powerful and so rich, (they want to know) how come it’s not happening right now."

If the Marines can’t work all those miracles, they nevertheless can do a great deal of good in a short time.

But if their contributions to the Iraqi people are tangible and will increase in time, the most important thing is providing leadership on the future of the country — where until recently any dissent was punishable by torture and execution.

Couvillon and his men are also educators, about the importance of liberty and the rule of law. Free enterprise and democracy might not come easily to a people whose lives have been directed from the top down for so long.

Even Wasit’s best-educated residents are ignorant about Western processes and ideas, Couvillon said. "We’re proud that we can bring the idea of freedom and democracy to another country," he said. "Iraq is for Iraqis, and we want to make sure it stays that way."

If the path toward stable and efficient self-government might be a long one, the people of the United States can be proud of the role of Marines and other Americans in building democracy among a people starved for progress and modern ways of life.

.

 

 

 

As you note there is a difference between ability and capability. In 1940 the US had no ability in jungle warfare. As the Japanese learned to their sorrow, we learned fast. If given a mission, the US military responds. If told precisely how to do the work by amateurs and intellectuals, the result is generally a failure. Some Presidents learn fast. Others never do. I see I neglected to post the links to attachments. I will fix that now.

Apologies. I have not way to link to the second article. I seem to be doing something wrong because it wants to link to my own hard drive although it appears on Firefox. I have not time to straighten this out.

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Support for Syrian rebels

So the news today President Obama has authorized CIA support for the Syrian rebels.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/aug/02/obama-order-supporting-syria-rebels

These would be the same rebels who are driving Christians out of Syria

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/christians-flee-from-radical-rebels-in-syria-a-846180.html

http://www.rt.com/news/syrian-rebels-desecrate-christian-churches-897/

And who are increasingly allying with Al Queda.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jul/30/al-qaida-rebels-battle-syria

=====

Hmm … since he’s allying the US with Al Queda, whom we are at war with, does this mean he is affording aid and comfort to our enemies and can be impeached for doing so?

Guess not. Foolishness isn’t an impeachable offense. If it were Washington DC would be empty. And we’d have to put Bush up right next to him in the dock for sending us into Iraq and starting this whole mess in the first place.

Isaiah 3:1-4:

"See now, the Lord .. is about to take from Jerusalem and Judah .. the hero and the warrior, the judge and the prophet, the diviner and the elder, the captain of fifty and the man of rank, the counselor, skilled craftsman and clever enchanter. I will make mere youths their officials; children will rule over them.”

Respectfully,

Brian P.

There are many more interesting questions here. The problem started with Bush I and the notion that we had reached the end of history. Liberal democracy would take over and all would be well. Clinton allowed Allbright to continue the folly of American involvement in the territorial disputes of Europe. Bush I at least had the good sense to get us the hell out of Iraq. Alas, that resulted in massacres – predictable if Hussein were left in power – and huge guilt complexes and the continued delusion that we could play the Empire game. Had we been a real Empire and hired Gurkhas to police Iraq after we broke its army, and sent in security forces to pump oil and pump oil and pump oil so that the price of oil fell to $25/bbl the economy would have boomed – but instead we sent in an arrogantely incompetent civilian pro-consul to undo all the work our Legions had done.

And in Afghanistan we conquered but in our arrogance we thought we could impose the will of Kabul on all of Afghanistan. We could do what Alexander the Great understood he could not do.

We sowed the wind.

We continue to sow the wind. But perhaps we have learned that there are limits to what the Legions can do.

When Napoleon reviewed his army before marching to Russia he is said to have turned to Talleyrand and said “See my splendid army! See how their bayonets gleam.”

“You can do anything with a bayonet, sire. Except sit upon it.”

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: Olympic coverage

Dear Jerry

A couple of notes about the Olympic coverage. We watched the opening ceremony and parade of athletes on European television, and the whole thing was seamless. The opening ceremony told the story of Britain – perhaps not to your taste, but nonetheless that’s what it was. The parade of athletes contained only about 1/3 of the total participants, but all countries were represented, and the parade was continuous, with no breaks.

In other words, if you saw chopped up coverage with lots of commercial breaks, this was an entirely American phenomenon!

For the sports coverage itself, we have mostly watched live streams on the Internet. As others have noted: the *lack* of a commentator was a sheer relief. One can watch 2-3 hours of continuous sport, with no commercial breaks, no stupid "personal interest" stories. Without the commentator, you can hear the athletes, their coaches, and the crowd – the atmosphere is as close to "being there" as you can get.

If there is no need for commentators, and network coverage is worse than the raw streams off the Internet, is this the beginning of a sea change for sports coverage?

Cheers

Brad

Well, your TV is better than ours. I suppose what we must do is nationalize the stations? Or perhaps it has something to do with badly written exclusivity laws.

As to whether that was the history of Britain, perhaps my sources are not very good. I have to rely on Macaulay, and Green, and Churchill, and my picture of the rise – and, alas fall – of England is something different from what I saw in the performance there. And were I telling the story of England, and had that much talent at my disposal, I might have thought that Kipling deserved a larger place, and perhaps Churchill, but then I guess one cannot offend the other nations.

I used to do baseball games on radio. I thought the game was more important than what I thought of it.

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If this is true, we are doomed.  This President is useless, if this is true:

<.>

The Russian Federation has fulfilled all terms of the agreement. And even more. I shut down not only the Cuban Lourdes but also Kamran in Vietnam. I shut them down because I gave my word of honor. I, like a man, has kept my word. What have the Americans done? The Americans are not responsible for their own words. It is no secret that in recent years, the U.S. created a buffer zone around Russia, involving in this process not only the countries of Central Europe, but also the Baltic states, Ukraine and the Caucasus. The only response to this could be an asymmetric expansion of the Russian military presence abroad, particularly in Cuba. In Cuba, there are convenient bays for our reconnaissance and warships, a network of the so-called "jump airfields." With the full consent of the Cuban leadership, on May 11 of this year, our country has not only resumed work in the electronic center of Lourdes, but also placed the latest mobile strategic nuclear missiles "Oak" on the island. They did not want to do it the amicable way, now let them deal with this," Putin said.

</>

http://english.pravda.ru/russia/politics/01-08-2012/121804-russia_army_base-0/

Cuban Missile Crisis II?  And, I’m sure this President wouldn’t want to do anything before the election….

—–

Most Respectfully,

Joshua Jordan, KSC

Percussa Resurgo

Well, that is one way to get our attention. I must be alone in believing that Mr. Putin has better motives than are usually imputed to him, given the needless insults the United States flings toward him and his people. I thin he believes himself a patriot, and a pan-slavist, and I do not think we take him seriously enough. The US and Russia have many common interests, although we do not seem to notice that. And what would constitute a legitimate government in Russia?

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Islamists in North Mali Stone Couple to Death http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/31/world/africa/couple-stoned-to-death-by-islamists-in-mali.html

By ADAM NOSSITER

BAMAKO, Mali–Islamists in control of a town in northern Mali stoned a couple to death after accusing them of having children outside of marriage, a local official who was one of several hundred witnesses to the killings said Monday.

The official said the bearded Islamists, armed with Kalashnikov rifles, brought the couple into the center of the town of Aguelhok from about 12 miles away in the countryside. The young man and woman were forced into holes about four feet deep, with their heads protruding, and then stoned to death at about 5 a.m. Sunday, the official said.

"They put them into the holes, and then they started throwing big rocks, until they were dead," the official said, speaking by satellite phone from the remote desert town near the Algerian border.

"It was horrible," he said, noting that the woman had moaned and cried out and that her partner had yelled something indistinct during the attack. "It was inhuman. They killed them like they were animals."

The continuing joys of diversity. Perhaps Egypt will move toward this. Or Syria. Does anyone know?

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Lights going out

We’ve already discussed this, but even the Washington Post is now noticing that the power grid is having trouble.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/trafficandcommuting/aging-power-grid-on-overload-as-us-demands-more-electricity/2012/08/01/gJQAB5LDQX_story.html

"The U.S. grid is aging and stretched to capacity. More often the victim of decrepitude than the forces of nature, it is beginning to falter. "

What is that line you are always quoting?

"We moved as the Spirit listed. They never altered their pace,
Being neither cloud nor wind-borne like the Gods of the Market Place,
But they always caught up with our progress, and presently word would come
That a tribe had been wiped off its icefield, or the lights had gone out in Rome."

Literal, in this case.

Respectfully,

Brian P.

And the gods of the copybook headings, with terror and slaughter return. When you sow the wind…

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Speed kills! US Navy targets hypersonic, GPS-guided bullets — RT

http://rt.com/usa/news/navy-hypersonic-gps-bullets-701/

Remember the old cartoons where a bullet could chase you around a corner? What if that bullet was fired at 5,600 mph from an Electromagnetic Rail Gun? If the US Navy has its way, these sci-fi,supersonic GPS-guided projectiles could soon be a reality.

The futuristic munitions come as part of the US Office of Naval Research’s (ONR) Hyper Velocity Projectile program, which was announced on July 19. The agency’s researchers hope to develop equipment that would allow high-velocity weapons to accurately strike far-away targets – without having to depend on rocket propulsion, Military and Aerospace Electronics reports.

The Navy hopes the supersonic ammunition, with a potential “in-flight retargeting” capability, will be compatible with both its conventional guns, like the Mk 45 155-millimeter gun systems, as well as its experimental 20–32MJ railgun systems, which fire projectiles using electrical energy instead of chemical propellants.

The bullets are slated to be two feet long, weigh somewhere between 20 and 30 pounds, and have a range of 30 to even 200 miles depending on the system deploying them.

Significant in-flight retargeting of (more or less) ballistic ammo is a nice feature.

John

John Harlow

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‘Homeland Security’ issuing YouTube takedown notices.

<http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20120720/02530219774/homeland-security-issuing-its-own-dmca-takedowns-youtube-to-stifle-speech.shtml>

Roland Dobbins

What an astonishment!

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Muller not a skeptic?

Dear Dr. Pournelle,

I read with interest the link on your site which showed statements by

Dr. Muller which showed that he was not a skeptic. I have another source (sent by a liberal friend) which shows statements he has made recently which do indeed show skepticism.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/skeptic_Richard_Muller.htm

So if all the statements by the parties by your previous correspondent

and this one are correct, it appears that he has gone back and forth on the issue more than once.

Regardless, I do still agree that this adds nothing new to the debate

— the facts are as they are, and the conversion of one person to one side or another persuades no one who is not already amenable to Appeal to Authority.

Respectfully,

Brian P.

That’s the point. But I got so much mail on it that I thought it ought to be mentioned.

Jerry Pournelle

Chaos Manor

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Elon Musk mentions that James Cameron has "Birth of Fire" in LA Times

Please don’t use my name if you publish this.

There is an interview with Elon Musk in the LA Times on August 1st, 2012 which says:

> The movies provide us with two space future models: "Star Trek," where a government agency governs space, versus "Alien," where a private space mining company makes its own rules.

>

> We need a new archetype. I’ve talked to James Cameron about this. He’s got a script for a realistic Mars mission because there’s not been a good Mars movie. That’s another thing that bugs me: The Mars movies have been so bad. I mean, honestly! And it’s going to be tricky getting funding for another Mars movie after"John Carter." It was a good comic book, and they totally screwed up the movie.

Mr. Cameron had intended Birth of Fire to be his next movie before he was persuaded that the technology existed to let him do Avatar. Perhaps he will consider it now. Needless to say, my Mars story has little in common with John Carter of Mars. Indeed, it remains quite consistent with what we know about Mars. And it takes place with technology we could build now if we wanted to. I believe the option he bought has expired but I would be glad to discuss renewal. He’d make a great movie of it.

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NBC commentators

Jerry:

You write of "NBC commenters who made sure that no part of the ceremony was unaccompanied by mindless chatter".

Don’t you know commentators, journalists, and anyone even remotely connected with reporting are all the real stars of the show? The Olympics exist only to make TV journalists and commentators look good.

That’s why, for example, reporters are so irate when a Presidential candidate doesn’t give them the attention they deserve.

…………Karl Lembke

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Horror in Hershey? Teach your kids to read. And some thoughts on legitimacy in government.

View 735 Thursday, August 02, 2012

I’ve been working on fiction for the last couple of days. I even took a few hours off for social activities. And it’s very hot in Los Angeles.

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I have no knowledge of this incident other than various repetitions of the story originally posted in a fundraising appeal by the Home Schooling Defense Association, an organization I am not familiar with. The story is so horrifying that I would have thought it would be all over the news by now, with every major network – and certainly Fox and Newscorp – sending teams of reporters, and the Attorney General of Pennsylvania sending in a team of investigators looking for corroboration leading to changes of kidnapping, assault, perjury, malfeasance in office, and various criminal offenses on the part of both lay and medical bureaucrats in the “Hershey Medical Center—a state-affiliated hospital in Pennsylvania.” I put that in quotes because there are at least two Hersey Medical Centers in Pennsylvania. One is the expected center in Hersey, PA (expected because Hersey has a long history of providing for the residents of Hersey) but I would not have thought that a state-affiliated hospital; and the other a state facility in State College, PA.

The HSLDA story told by its chairman Michael P. Farris, Esq. does not identify which. Of course Mr. Farris is a lawyer and institution chairman, not a reporter; but still, you would think that this would be an important detail.

The story is told in some detail under the title Newborn Seized in Hospital by Police, Social Worker

http://www.hslda.org/hs/state/pa/201203270.asp.

It is truly horrifying, and as I said, it is a story that one would think would be all over the headlines of every paper in the country. In my search for some details not given in the story – such as where the hospital is, and some of the names of people involved – I found numerous web sites I have never visited before telling the story, but they were all repetitions – some with emotional enhancements – of Mr. Farris’s story, and none told me more than he had.

I first heard of this story in email from a friend and frequent correspondent pointing me to http://www.wnd.com/2012/07/mom-booted-from-hospital-as-baby-snatched/ on the WND website, another with which I have no familiarity.

My problem here is that what is alleged is horrifying and should be told widely: but I can’t find any account of it other than repetitions of the original post in Mr. Farris’ fundraising appeal, and while I have absolutely no evidence that Mr. Farris is not scrupulously correct in his account, it is clear that he was not a witness, and he gives no sources.

If any substantial part of this story is true, then we can expect to see criminal arrests in either Hersey, PA or State College, PA, and some attention paid to the matter, and I can add this to my examples of the workings of the Iron Law of Bureaucracy.

I have now found this: http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2012/03/williamstown_couple_sues_penn.html which establishes that this was the Penn State facility at State College, and gives the names of the parents and the judge who returned their child to their custody, so apparently at least some of this horrifying story is based on facts. Whether the location in State College PA has any bearing I can’t determine, but it wasn’t the town of Hersey. Penn State is much more interested in football than chocolate.

= = = =

Alert. The following is an advertisement.

I note that this involves home schooling. The most important thing schools can teach the young in the Unites States is to teach them to read. Most don’t. If your school talks about ‘reading at grade level’ they are not really teaching the kids to read. Find out more at http://www.readingtlc.com/ which is the home ground of Mrs. Pournelle’s reading program. It’s old, it’s hokey, and it just plain works.

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Subject: Metformin, B-12 and calcium

Jerry, one of your correspondents reports that the metformin she takes is depleting her B-12 and calcium. I’m very sorry to read that, but I’d like to point out that although metformin certainly can have that effect, it doesn’t always, or even usually. How do I know? Well, I’ve been taking it for about a decade now. As you know, I’ve also been hospitalized twice with ITP, resulting from a dangerously-low platelet count and one of the things your body uses B-12 for is building platelets. On two separate occasions, I’ve asked my hematologist (As chance would have it, I got lucky and was assigned to the head of the department at the West LA VA Hospital.) if this might be a factor and both times he assured me that it wasn’t. Yes, there’s no doubt that it can happen, but I didn’t want all of your readers who are taking metformin to be unduly worried.

I have taken metformin for about ten years myself, and I have had no problems. I do sometimes take a B-100 when I think of it, but that’s not part of my usual witch’s brew. On the gripping hand I do take a broad spectrum of vitamin and mineral supplements, most of them undoubtedly making expensive urine and making my kidneys work a bit harder, but something seems to be keeping m going at my age.

I have taken metformin for more than a decade. I continue to take the recommended dosage, and my sugar is reasonably well under control: I do eat lots of salads, and we walk a mile every other day.

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Thinking about Syria

I am preparing a short piece on US interests and options in Syria, and by extension, the Middle East, Arab Spring, Moscow Spring, and the general unrest in the world. I don’t call it an essay because I am not sure I will have any conclusions. The problem with the world is that we no longer have any agreement – anywhere – on just what is legitimacy in government. The US principle is that: All men are created equal. They are endowed by their Creator with certain inalienable rights. Among these rights are life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, the latter of which is interpreted as a right to security in their property. To secure these rights governments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the government.

Legitimate government, then, is government by consent of the governed, and all of politics is just a means for discerning what is the consent of the governed.

What happens when the governed do not all consent to the same thing? As for example, if some part of the population is considered unequal and not entitled to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness? This was the basis of the principle constitutional crisis of the United States from its beginning, through the Civil War, and into modern times. There is no agreement on just what ‘Created Equal’ means, and particularly when we are also told that among our rights is the right to reject the very notion of a Creator and the right to forbid the majority of the governed from exhibiting religious symbols such as the Ten Commandments at Courthouses, or crèches and menorahs in the public parks, or opening public ceremonies with an Invocation and closing them with some form of Benediction. If we reject the Creator we are thrown upon science to determine what “created equal” means, and science is a weak reed indeed for supporting that proposition. After all, we are shown every night on television men and women doing things few of us aspire to, and very graphically demonstrating that we are not their equals. We see television shows demonstrating that some people appear to be more intelligent than the rest of us. We all grew up on stories about heroes, and our comic books don’t even pretend to equality. What does it mean, equal?

And just who are the governed, and how do we measure their consent? We don’t allow children under age 18 to vote, and when I was young that age was 21, although the age of military service was 18, or 17 with parental consent or with the willing collusion of a recruiting sergeant. There were good reasons for limiting the voting age to 21, and there are still good reasons for not lowering it to, say, 14 which is when young Roman boys were subject to conscription.

In a reasonably homogeneous society it might make sense to take a majority vote and call that ‘consent of the governed’. Give that society enough diversity and the situation changes. If we take a vote among chickens and foxes as to which shall be dinner for the other, the loser is unlikely to believe that this is a valid procedure. The chickens will appeal to the farmer, who will drive away the foxes, and the chickens can now appeal to the good will and self interest of their protector to keep them for their eggs at least until they are beyond egg-laying age.

Similar arguments have been made by Civil Rights groups for centuries. Tennessee had fair elections before and after the Civil War, but it had legal segregation when I was growing up. We were taught the principle of consent of the governed in US history in grade school, and we all – well, all of us in the white classrooms – saw no conflict of principle.

Pass now to the Middle East, where there are racial, tribal, religious, and religious sectarian differences that make the legally segregated South of my youth look like a vary good deal for minority and majority alike. In Syria, an Arab tribe called the Alawi have long been a warrior caste – when the French governed Syria under mandate they recruited soldiers largely from the Alawi minority, and the fierce fighting ability of the Alawites is mentioned in accounts written during the Crusades – and the Alawi have been the traditional governing class. The Alawi are Shiite, and some Shiite scholars consider them heretics; and of course the Sunni majority of Syria consider them heretics because they aren’t Sunni. As to the Sunni, the Saudi royal family has long made alliance with the Wahabi who insist on strict adherence to Islamic law. That includes levying tribute on Christians and Jews.

Much of the support for the Syrian rebels comes from Saudi Arabia, and with that aid come some Wahabi clerics. Al Qaeda is strictly Sunni Muslim.

The Alawi government, being a minority itself, traditionally had more tolerance for Christian, Jews, animists (not many of those in Syria), atheists and general secularism than do either their Wahabi enemies or their Shiite Iranian allies and supporters.

There were similar differences in Egypt, and after Egypt fell to 100,000 demonstrators who convinced the world that the Egyptian Army did not have the consent of the governed, the ancient Christian communities in Egypt were under attack. The Christian have not consented to be persecuted. The Army used to protect them.

There are similar stories in other parts of the world. It is clear that Russia has no concept of what a legitimate government might be. Communism under Gorbachev? When the old line communists tried to overthrow Gorbachev, the result was Yeltsin. Under Yeltsin the corruption increased to spectacular levels, so much so that it horrified the KGB, who promised to end much of the corruption. Enter Putin. What is not seen here is any concept of what would legitimize government in Russia. Return of the Tsar?

The appeal of Monarchy is that the monarch is supposed to protect everyone. The price of monarchy is that there is no pretense of equality.

We can be sure that a majority vote among illiterates will not make for a very effective government. Or will it? And is it legitimate? At one time legitimacy had to do with who had hereditary rights. We have scrapped that in the United States, and we now seem to think that only a plebiscite can legitimize a government. The problem is that a plebiscite may incite the winner to finish off a minority. Particularly in cases such as the Kurds of Iraq, or the Alawi of Syria.

More on this later; for now I leave for lunch, and you can contemplate – just what would legitimize governments in: Iran. Iraq. Egypt. Libya. Tunisia. Morocco. Chad. Arabia. Qatar. Kuwait where American guns restored the Royal Family which spent the First Gulf War in London casinos. Bosnia. Serbia. Croatia. Pakistan. Uzbekistan. I could continue.

And not all that long ago the neocons were talking about the end of history.

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I am going to have lunch now.

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Sir John Keegan, RIP

Thought you would want to know, since many of his books made it into your recommendation lists over the years:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/obituaries/culture-obituaries/books-obituaries/9447744/Sir-John-Keegan.html

Lawrence Person

I have indeed recommended his books over the years. RIP

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